Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
